The Reform of the Pension System from 2021 to 2023. A balance

a Balance

Abstract

This article analyzes the different measures adopted from 2021 to 2023, as well as the available estimates of their expected impacts by 2050, both in expenses and revenues. Based on the starting situation of the public pension system in Spain and of the Social Security contributory system at the end of 2022, with these available estimates, the different paths of income and expenses of the Social Security contributory system and of the total pensions, including non-contributory pensions and passive classes. Our results suggest that the Social Security contributory deficit will oscillate between an average from 2023 to 2050 of 1.8% of GDP in the most optimistic scenario and 3.4% in another in which the incentives for delayed retirement do not lead to a reduction in spending on pensions planned by the Government and the reform of the special regime for the self-employed has neutral effects on the deficit in 2050. To these estimates of the contributory deficit must be added the financing needs for spending on non-contributory pensions and passive classes, which account for approximately 1.7% of GDP on average until 2050.